Urban Concentration, Redistribution, and Authoritarian Resilience

Abstract

How does redistributive policy affect the survival of authoritarian regimes? I argue that redistributive policy in favor of cities, while a temporary measure reducing urban grievances, in the long-run undermines regime survival by inducing urban concentration. I test the argument using cross-national city population, urban bias, and non-democratic regime survival data in the post-WWII period. The results show that urban concentration is dangerous for dictators principally by promoting collective action, that urban bias induces urban concentration, and that urban bias represents a Faustian bargain with short-term benefits overwhelmed by long-term costs.