Urban carrying capacity assessment framework for mega mall development. A case study of Tehran’s 22 municipal districts

Abstract

This paper presents the research results on the evaluation of Tehran’s 22 municipal districts’ carrying capacity concerning mega malls. Here, we developed an Urban Carrying Capacity Assessment Framework (UCCAF). Using a combination of objective and subjective methods, we determined the final weights of economic, social, environmental, and transportation criteria and their 25 subsequent indices. For the objective weights, we used the “Ekbatan Mega Mall” as a case study and entered the data from field observation, interviews, and questionnaires into the Rapid Impact Assessment Matrix (RIAM). Next, we distributed the criteria and indices to the experts to collect their views and priorities. To obtain subjective weights from these priorities, we used a Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method, i.e., Step-wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA). Next, we applied Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS) to combine the final weights of indices with the UCCAF results. Here, the districts’ ultimate rankings concerning their carrying capacity for mega malls were obtained. Finally, using the cluster analysis method, districts were classified into six clusters of optimum (district 22), good (district 5), acceptable (districts 21, 4, and 2), poor (districts 19 and 20), very poor (the rest of districts except district 12), and critical (district 12) in terms of carrying capacity. The results reveal that 21 out of 36 recently-built mega malls of Tehran are located in districts with very poor carrying capacity. The proposed framework provides urban planners with a dynamic carrying-capacity-based decision support system.