Abstract
Climate change will impact urban areas. Decision makers need useful climate information to adapt adequately. This research aims to improve understanding of changes in moisture and temperature projected under climate change in Berlin compared to its surroundings. Simulations for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario from the European Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) 0.11° are analyzed, showing a difference in moisture and temperature variables between Berlin and its surroundings. The running mean over 30 years shows a divergence throughout the twenty-first century for relative humidity between Berlin and its surroundings. Under this scenario, Berlin gets drier over time. The Mann-Kendall test quantifies a robust decreasing trend in relative humidity for the multi-model ensemble throughout the twenty-first century. The Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test for relative humidity indicates a robust climate change signal in Berlin. It is drier and warmer in Berlin compared to its surroundings for all months with the largest difference existing in summer. Additionally, the change in humidity for the period 2070–2099 compared to 1971–2000 is larger in the summer months. This study presents results to better understand near surface moisture change and related variables under long-term climate change in urban areas compared to their rural surroundings using a regional climate multi-model ensemble.
Highlights
Climate change poses severe challenges to urban areas and climate change impacts will magnify throughout the century alongside rapid ongoing and projected urbanization [1,2,3]
This study presents results to better understand near surface moisture change and related variables under long-term climate change in urban areas compared to their rural surroundings using a regional climate multi-model ensemble
Humidity changes under climate change conditions are poorly understood in urban areas
Summary
Climate change poses severe challenges to urban areas and climate change impacts will magnify throughout the century alongside rapid ongoing and projected urbanization [1,2,3]. To adequately face these climate-change-related challenges, urban decision makers require tailored climate information to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies to build the sustainable cities of tomorrow [4,5,6]. Most climate data and information produced by urban or climate models are either not scale compliant for cities, offer only a limited set of climatological parameters, or are unable to simulate urban–rural interactions.
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