Abstract
ABSTRACTUrban and rural population growth in a spatial panel of municipalities. Regional Studies. Using Bayesian posterior model probabilities and data pertaining to 3659 Brazilian minimum comparable areas (MCAs) over the period 1970–2010, two theoretical settings of population growth dynamics resulting in two spatial econometric specifications in combination with a wide range of potential neighbourhood matrices are tested against each other. The best performing combination counts five determinants producing significant long-term spatial spillover effects. Ignoring these spillovers, as many previous population growth studies have done, is shown to underestimate their impact and thus the effectiveness of policy measures acting on these determinants.
Highlights
Brazilian urbanization represents a highly significant, robust social phenomenon; the percentage of people living in urban centers in Brazil increased from 55.9% in 1970 to 84.4% in 2010 (IBGE, 2011)
DETERMINANTS OF BRAZILIAN POPULATION DYNAMICS The results reported in second column of Table 3 show that six of the thirteen spatially lagged explanatory variables in the dynamic spatial Durbin model (SDM) specification appear statistically significant at the 5% level
This article proposes an economic-theoretical model for city population growth, derive an explicit econometric spatial model from it, and estimate the effects of variables associated with the population growth of Brazilian cities during the period 1970-2010
Summary
Brazilian urbanization represents a highly significant, robust social phenomenon; the percentage of people living in urban centers in Brazil increased from 55.9% in 1970 to 84.4% in 2010 (IBGE, 2011) This process resulted largely from improved economic and social prospects in cities (DA MATA et al, 2007; HENDERSON, 1988; YAP, 1976). Reviewing growth between 1970 and 2000, DA MATA et al (2007) reveal that favorable supply and demand conditions, including market potential variables, better schooling, and limited opportunities in the agricultural sector, favored the growth of Brazilian cities. These studies are limited in two aspects. They do not account for spatial dependence, i.e., their theoretical and empirical treatments consider cities as independent entities
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