Abstract
Can shrinking cities harness population decline to improve their sustainability by repurposing land use, for example, for localizing food production? Whether such a transition is feasible depends on the pre-shrinkage state of urban agricultural land use, including ongoing trends in local land use change. This study examined agricultural land use from 2007–2017 in Kyoto City, Japan. Kyoto is on the brink of a large projected population decline (~190,000 or ~13% until 2040) and serves as a representative for a large number of regional Japanese cities in a similar situation. Analysis was based on a public 2007 land use data set, aerial and satellite imagery and ground truthing. Results showed a decline of 209 ha or 10% in agricultural land use over ten years, but also highlight the diversity of ongoing agricultural land use types not captured by standard categories. The main post-agricultural land uses were residential (40%) and vacant land (28%). These results have implications for planning and policy. Kyoto City is currently not set to benefit from the projected shrinking process through localizing food production, despite a tradition of vegetable production. Future research should analyze drivers of change for observed agricultural land use.
Highlights
Shrinking cities face the challenge of providing a pleasant place to live for residents while transitioning to sustainability, but without the financial capacity of a growing local economy [1,2]
This leads to the question, which measures can shrinking cities take to harness population decline for their advantage?
This study examined agricultural land use, land use change trajectory and post-agricultural land use from 2007–2017 in Kyoto, Japan, a city on the brink of a large projected population decline, similar to many regional Japanese cities
Summary
Shrinking cities face the challenge of providing a pleasant place to live for residents while transitioning to sustainability, but without the financial capacity of a growing local economy [1,2]. Japan is at the forefront of a demographic decline among industrialized nations This presents an opportunity to study potential post-industrial sustainability transitions which may provide valuable lessons for countries on a similar population trajectory (e.g., South Korea, China, Italy). Improving our understanding of the opportunities and challenges of sustainability transitions in regional shrinking cities may prove vital for the implementation of proactive policies and achievement of positive outcomes in larger cities. This leads to the question, which measures can shrinking cities take to harness population decline for their advantage?
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