Uranium Mine Proposed Experimental Design for Natural Background Gross Gamma Exposure Rates, Post Remediation Final Status Survey Sampling Density, and Radiological Water Quality Modeling for a Worst-case Catastrophic Failure, Coles Hill, Virginia.

Abstract

Completely randomized experimental design statistical modeling techniques were employed to analyze exposure rate measurements for evaluating hypothetical natural background post uranium mill operations at Coles Hill, Virginia uranium milling processes. The proposed Coles Hill Uranium Mine is situated upstream of the Banister River. This River is nearly homogenous throughout the reach length used in analysis and feeds into the mouth of Kerr Reservoir, Lake Gaston, which serves as the main drinking water source for cities in the Hampton Roads area including Norfolk, Virginia Beach, and Chesapeake. A critical scan value (=DCGLscan) was developed to flag anomalies of surface contamination during simulated post remediation final status surveys. The natural background was critical for meeting the Multi-Agency Radiation Survey and Site Investigation Manual guidance for post remediation final status surveys. The overarching null hypothesis suggested that the selected mean natural background is equal to the survey unit's mean natural background. Using SAS Procedures Shapiro-Wilk Test, ANOVA, and CR, it was decided the exposure rate data was normal, had no extreme outliers, and no collinearity between the number of samples (=treatment) and the areas (=block). Using the q-hyper (hypergeometric) distribution, the soil sampling density was decided for a final status survey unit. The most likely worst-case catastrophic failure analysis, 500-year event, such as the1969 Hurricane Camille of 69 centimeters of rain in Nelson County, Virginia was included in the model. The model showed impact was minimal at most to the Banister River's drinking water and likely less than the Virginia's Drinking Water Standards for gross alpha, 226Ra and 228Ra, and total uranium.