Abstract
Climate change is posing high risk for glacial resources of the Indus basin on which hundreds of millions of people depend for their sustenance in the downstream. In the present study, impact of climate change was investigated on the multi-water resource regimes of Upper Indus Basin and lower Indus plain of Pakistan adopting integrated statistical and hydrological modeling approach. The findings of the study revealed higher rate of temperature rise in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) than in the lower Indus plain. An inverse relationship was observed between glacier area and mean temperature as well as rainfall (significant at p < 0.05) averaged over 10 sub-basins of the UIB. In contrast, lake area exhibited a positive correlation with both temperature and rainfall parameters. Similarly, river discharges of the sub-basins exhibited a fair positive correlation with mean temperature and rainfall. The groundwater regime in the Indus plain appears to respond indirectly to changes in climate, i.e., via variations in surface recharge and discharge conditions. However, such interactions between various parameters and their role in regional hydrology need a thorough investigation in context of projected changes in climate in this region.
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