Upskilling, Deskilling or Polarisation? Evidence on Change in Skills in Europe

Abstract

What are the directions of change in the complexity of work and the required skill levels of the labour force in Europe? Three prominent strands of literature suggest conflicting expectations – upskilling, deskilling and polarisation. This question is answered by employing a novel work complexity indicator that measures how tasks are performed at work according to three dimensions: routinisation of tasks, autonomy at work and continuous skill-building. The measurements rely on the European Working Conditions Surveys carried out in 2005, 2010 and 2015. The results show that the European labour markets witness upskilling with some polarisation, although there are significant cross-national differences. They also show that, individually, neither shifts in work complexity within occupations (deskilling hypothesis), nor changes in employment structure (the focus of the upskilling and polarisation hypotheses) can provide an adequate view of trends in the European labour markets. Instead, both vectors of change should be analysed collectively.