Upon entering NATO: explaining defence willingness among Swedes

Abstract

ABSTRACT In the wake of the new security situation in Europe, Sweden has decided to apply for membership in NATO. After over 200 years without war, the country must now be set to defend not just itself, but its allies as well. Are Swedes ready for this? Previous research has shown a high willingness among Swedes to defend their country. But what actually explains this high defence willingness among Swedes, given their unfamiliarity with the task? To examine the willingness of the country’s population to contribute to the military, we make use of survey data collected before and after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It turns out that the most general explanation for defence willingness, namely threat perception, has little or no explanatory value in the Swedish context. Surprisingly, this was true before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as well as after. Furthermore, context-specific explanations citing the prevalence of emancipatory values among Swedes find no support either. However, this study does find robust support for gender, trust and political orientation as important explanatory factors for defence willingness. Our findings thus underscore some challenges facing Sweden as a newcomer to NATO, as political divides along lines of gender and trust widen.