Abstract
Abstract Leadership analysis has been a traditional paradigm for studying international relations. The theory of moral realism improves this paradigm’s scientific rigour when explaining the relationship between the leadership of major powers and system-level international changes. Methodologically, moral realism uses morality as the criterion to categorise international leadership, the key independent variable. The theory is developed to improve realism’s explanatory power regarding the common historical phenomenon of the rise and fall of great powers. Rather than being Sino-centric, the foreign policy recommendations extrapolated from the theory of moral realism—which are descriptive rather than prescriptive—are applicable to both China and other major powers. Since theories of systemic analysis have failed to explain the transition of global order from globalisation to the counter-globalisation, the paradigm of leadership analysis is worth consideration. It may indeed provide a vector of enquiry regarding the correlation between the current prevalence of populist leadership in major powers and the growing counter-globalisation trend.
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