Abstract
Abstract. Vulnerability is a complex concept involving a variety of disciplines from both the physical and socio-economic sciences. Currently, two opposite trends exist: the physical approach in which vulnerability is analysed as a sum of potential impacts on elements at risk and the social approach in which vulnerability is mostly viewed as a combination of socio-economic variables determining people's ability to anticipate, cope with and recover from a catastrophic event. Finding a way to combine these two approaches is a key issue for a global vulnerability assessment. In this paper we propose to combine elements from these two approaches through the analysis of the potential consequences of a high-magnitude flood event (recurrence interval (RI) > 100 years) on human and material stakeholders. To perform our analysis, we choose to upgrade an existing index, the Potential Damage Index (PDI; Puissant et al., 2013), by including social criteria. The PDI was originally developed to assess the physical consequences of hazards on the elements at risk (people, building and lands). It is based on the calculation of three sub-indices representing different types of direct and indirect consequences: physical injury consequences (PIC), structural and functional consequences (SFC), indirect functional consequences (IC). Here, we propose to add a fourth sub-index representing the social consequences. This new sub-index, called social consequences (SC) is obtained by combining criteria derived from INSEE French census data and a risk-perception survey conducted in the field. By combining the four indices (PIC, SFC, IC and SC), we managed to create a new index called the Potential Consequences Index (PCI). The new PCI was tested on the Upper Guil catchment to assess the consequences of a high-magnitude flood event (RI > 100 years). Results of the PDI were compared with the PCI and show significant differences. The upgrade to the PDI method provided us with many inputs. The introduction of elements from social vulnerability added an extra dimension to the total consequence map. It allowed us to qualify the potential physical consequences (physical injury, structural and functional consequences) on elements at risk by considering the global resilience of local communities.
Highlights
In Europe, small Alpine communities are exposed to natural hazards due to characteristics inherent to the physical and the socio-economic environment (Zingari and Fiebiger, 2002)
In the present paper we explored the possibility to assess the physical and the social vulnerability together through an indicator-based method
We opted for an upgrade of the Potential Damage Index (PDI) method, which was originally developed to assess the physical consequences of defined hazards on elements at risk
Summary
In Europe, small Alpine communities are exposed to natural hazards due to characteristics inherent to the physical and the socio-economic environment (Zingari and Fiebiger, 2002). Alpine areas are generally characterised by step gradient, tectonic activity and harsh climates resulting in dynamic gravitational and torrential processes causing hazards (Keiler and Fuchs, 2016; Papathoma-Köhle et al, 2011). They are characterised by a high level of vulnerability caused by scattered populations and resources (Hewitt and Metha, 2012), limited accessibility (Leone et al, 2014) and strong dependencies to seasonal tourism activities (Elsasser and Bürki, 2002; Muhar et al, 2007). Carlier et al.: Upgrading of an index-oriented methodology for consequence analysis
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