Upfront surgery for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: Prediction of futility using artificial intelligence

Abstract

ObjectiveWe sought to identify patients at risk of “futile” surgery for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma using an artificial intelligence (AI)–based model based on preoperative variables. MethodsIntrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma patients who underwent resection between 1990 and 2020 were identified from a multi-institutional database. Futility was defined either as mortality or recurrence within 12 months of surgery. Various machine learning and deep learning techniques were used to develop prediction models for futile surgery. ResultsOverall, 827 intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma patients were included. Among 378 patients (45.7%) who had futile surgery, 297 patients (78.6%) developed intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma recurrence and 81 patients (21.4%) died within 12 months of surgical resection. An ensemble model consisting of multilayer perceptron and gradient boosting classifiers that used 10 preoperative factors demonstrated the highest accuracy, with areas under receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.830 (95% confidence interval 0.798–0.861) and 0.781 (95% confidence interval 0.707–0.853) in the training and testing cohorts, respectively. The model displayed sensitivity and specificity of 64.5% and 80.0%, respectively, with positive and negative predictive values of 73.1% and 72.7%, respectively. Radiologic tumor burden score, serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9, and direct bilirubin levels were the factors most strongly predictive of futile surgery. The artificial intelligence–based model was made available online for ease of use and clinical applicability (https://altaf-pawlik-icc-futilityofsurgery-calculator.streamlit.app/). ConclusionThe artificial intelligence ensemble model demonstrated high accuracy to identify patients preoperatively at high risk of undergoing futile surgery for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. Artificial intelligence–based prediction models can provide clinicians with reliable preoperative guidance and aid in avoiding futile surgical procedures that are unlikely to provide patients long-term benefits.