Updating the Assessment of Resistance and Reliability of Existing Aging Bridges with Prior Service Loads

Abstract

AbstractThe successful past performance of an existing bridge is evidence of its resistance, which reduces the uncertainty associated with the resistance and so increases the bridge reliability. However, the resistance deterioration and increases in traffic load may negate this effect. In this paper, statistical techniques are used to combine the prior estimate of time-dependent resistance with new information from the service load history, thereby obtaining an updated estimate of bridge resistance, as well as an updated reliability for subsequent years. The application of the method is illustrated using an existing bridge. The influences of the intensity and nonstationarity of service load history and the shape and variance of deterioration function on updated estimates of bridge resistance and reliability are examined using parametric examples. It is found that the updated resistance of an existing bridge with ever-increasing traffic load is close to that of the same bridge with a stationary traffic loa...