Abstract

Consider a statistical model, given by the distribution of the observation X, conditional on the parameter θ, and the prior distribution of the parameter θ. Let H x denote the function that maps the prior mean and the prior covariance matrix into the posterior mean and the posterior covariance matrix, when X = x is observed. We prove that if the conditional distribution of X belongs to an exponential family, then the function H x characterizes the distribution of X∥ θ.

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