Abstract
To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species' distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.
Highlights
At present there are evidences suggesting that climate is warming globally and fast, partially in response to the increased output of greenhouse gases
Climate is one of the main determinant factors affecting the geographical range of species [4,11–13], and birds, a well-studied group of organisms, may respond to climate change changing wintering areas, migration routes and breeding grounds [14,15], undergoing changes in their phenology [16–21] and their local abundances [22], and changing their overall distributions [23–26]
These predictions normally do not take into account previous knowledge about the historical, geographical, ecological and human-related factors that are known to condition the species distribution, which tend to be available for endangered species [28]. This knowledge is difficult to incorporate into climate change models, as the variables involved in them are not the same as those produced by the climate change scenarios
Summary
At present there are evidences suggesting that climate is warming globally and fast, partially in response to the increased output of greenhouse gases. The Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [1] concluded that past, present and future emissions of greenhouse gases are expected to warm the global climate between 1.4 and 5.8uC by 2100, what is a projected rate of warming much larger than the observed changes during the 20th century [2], and likely without precedent during the last 10,000 years, according to palaeoclimate data [3] These climatic changes are already altering some physical and biological systems and have already affected the distribution and population dynamics of a number of taxa across a broad range of geographical locations and habitats [4–9], and are expected to have even more severe consequences over the coming century [10]. To take advantage of known species distribution models, a promising approach is to update them to the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting to the future
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