Abstract
Purpose: A previously developed prediction model for radiographic finger interphalangeal joint (IPJ) osteoarthritis was developed within the Chingford 1000 Women Study. The Chingford Study is a prospective population-based cohort study of women only. Risk factors included in the original prediction model were age, occupation, base of thumb osteoarthritis, body mass index, and family history of hand osteoarthritis. The model was only weakly able to predict which participants would have IPJ osteoarthritis progression, and the model performance was poor (discrimination: 0.57, calibration: 1.38), suggesting that other risk factors might exist.
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