Updated PMC trends derived from SBUV data

Abstract

AbstractPrevious analysis of polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs) observed by Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instruments found that long‐term variations in PMC brightness and occurrence frequency were anticorrelated with solar activity and that an increasing secular trend was present at most latitudes. In this paper, long‐term PMC variations are presented in terms of ice water content (IWC), a physically based variable which is easier to interpret than previously reported UV albedo values. This model‐based conversion from albedo to IWC removes most scattering angle effects. The derived long‐term PMC variations in the SBUV data set are qualitatively the same using either an empirically derived adjustment for local time effects or no adjustment (i.e., assuming cancelation of interannual variations in tidally induced amplitude and/or phase). When we use stratospheric ozone variations as a proxy for mesospheric temperature changes, as suggested by recent model studies, we can explain more of the long‐term IWC variability than if we use a linear trend. These results show that PMC ice water content in bright clouds increased rapidly from 1979 through the late 1990s and has been approximately constant from the late 1990s through 2013. The numerical value and sign of this trend during the last 15 years depend on the choice of end points and latitude band. Simultaneously, the solar response of IWC observed by SBUV has weakened during the most recent cycle in the Northern Hemisphere, but increased in the Southern Hemisphere.