Updated phosphorus loads from Lake Huron and the Detroit River: Implications

Abstract

The binational Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA) revised Lake Erie’s phosphorus (P) loading targets, including a 40% western and central basin total P (TP) load reduction from 2008 levels. Because the Detroit and Maumee River loads are roughly equal and contribute almost 90% of the TP load to the western basin and 54% to the whole lake, they have drawn significant policy attention. The Maumee is the primary driver of western basin harmful algal blooms, and the Detroit and Maumee rivers are key drivers of central basin hypoxia and overall western and central basin eutrophication. So, accurate estimates of those loads are particularly important. While daily measurements constrain Maumee load estimates, complex flows near the Detroit River mouth, along with varying Lake Erie water levels and corresponding back flows, make measurements there a questionable representation of loading conditions. Because of this, the Detroit River load is generally estimated by adding loads from Lake Huron to those from the watersheds of the St. Clair and Detroit rivers and Lake St. Clair. However, recent research showed the load from Lake Huron has been significantly underestimated. Herein, I compare different load estimates from Lake Huron and the Detroit River, justify revised higher loads from Lake Huron with a historical reconstruction, and discuss the implications for Lake Erie models and loading targets.