Abstract
Background The duration of the stages of HAT is an important factor in epidemiological studies and intervention planning. Previously, we published estimates of the duration of the haemo-lymphatic stage 1 and meningo-encephalitic stage 2 of the gambiense form of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), in the absence of treatment. Here we revise the estimate of stage 2 duration, computed based on data from Uganda and South Sudan, by adjusting observed infection prevalence for incomplete case detection coverage and diagnostic inaccuracy.FindingsThe revised best estimate for the mean duration of stage 2 is 252 days (95% CI 171–399), about half of our initial best estimate, giving a total mean duration of untreated gambiense HAT infection of approximately 2 years and 2 months. ConclusionsOur new estimate provides improved information on the transmission dynamics of this neglected tropical disease in Uganda and South Sudan. We stress that there remains considerable variability around the estimated mean values, and that one must be cautious in applying these results to other foci.
Highlights
The duration of the stages of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) is an important factor in epidemiological studies and intervention planning
We stress that there remains considerable variability around the estimated mean values, and that one must be cautious in applying these results to other foci
In a previous paper [2], we reported on the duration of both stages of infection with the Trypanosoma brucei gambiense form of HAT, which we estimated at 526 and 500 days, respectively
Summary
The duration of the stages of HAT is an important factor in epidemiological studies and intervention planning. We published estimates of the duration of the haemo-lymphatic stage 1 and meningo-encephalitic stage 2 of the gambiense form of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), in the absence of treatment. We revise the estimate of stage 2 duration, computed based on data from Uganda and South Sudan, by adjusting observed infection prevalence for incomplete case detection coverage and diagnostic inaccuracy
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