Updated 5-year and new 10-year sexual recidivism rate norms for Static-99R with routine/complete samples.

Abstract

Objective: The purpose of this study was to develop new 10-year recidivism rate norms as well as to update 5-year norms for the Static-99R risk tool for routine/complete samples. We also present the extrapolated sexual recidivism rates from these new 10-year norms for follow-up periods of 11 to 20 years. Hypotheses: We hypothesized that absolute-recidivism base rates (B02; i.e., the intercept centered on the median score of 2) would vary; however, the relative predictive accuracy (i.e., discrimination; B1) would be stable across samples. In addition, compared with the estimated sexual recidivism rates with a fixed 5-year follow-up time, the estimated rates with a fixed 10-year follow-up time would be expected to be consistently higher across the Static-99R scores. Method: The current study included 12 independent samples (N = 7,224 for the 5-year recidivism rate norms; N = 1,599 [k = 6] for the 10-year norms) classified as routine/complete samples, that is, relatively random samples from a correctional system. Logistic regression parameters (B02 and B1) across the studies were aggregated using fixed-effect meta-analyses. Results: There was statistically significant variability in the base rates (B02), whereas the between-sample variability in the relative-risk parameters (B1) was no more than would be expected by chance. As expected, the 10-year base rates were approximately 1.5 times higher than the 5-year base rates (7.20% vs. 4.58%), and the extrapolated 20-year sexual recidivism rates were approximately double the observed 5-year sexual recidivism rates. Conclusions: The current study provides empirical evidence to estimate 5- and 10-year sexual recidivism rates based on Static-99R total scores. Evaluators who are especially concerned about long-term sexual recidivism risk (e.g., civil commitment) can report the expected sexual recidivism risk based on the new 10-year norms and the extrapolated sexual recidivism rates for follow-up periods of 11 to 20 years. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).