Abstract
Time series for the Southern Oscillation Index and mean global near surface temperature anomalies are compared for the 1950 to 2012 period using recently released HadCRU4 data. The method avoids a focused statistical analysis of the data, in part because the study deals with smoothed data, which means there is the danger of spurious correlations, and in part because the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation is a cyclical phenomenon of irregular period. In these situations the results of regression analysis or similar statistical evaluation can be misleading. With the potential controversy arising over a particular statistical analysis removed, the findings indicate that El Nino-Southern Oscillation exercises a major influence on mean global temperature. The results show the potential of natural forcing mechanisms to account for mean global temperature variation, although the extent of the influence is difficult to quantify from among the variability of short-term influences.
Highlights
Walker circulation and El Niño-La Niña oscillations are tropical Pacific atmosphere-ocean phenomena, but their influence on climate can be seen globally [1,2,3,4,5]
With the potential controversy arising over a particular statistical analysis removed, the findings indicate that El Nino-Southern Oscillation exercises a major influence on mean global temperature
It is noticeable that the correlation diminished significantly between 2005 and 2012, with temperature anomalies across those periods being poorly linked to the contemporaneous Troup Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
Summary
Walker circulation and El Niño-La Niña oscillations are tropical Pacific atmosphere-ocean phenomena, but their influence on climate can be seen globally [1,2,3,4,5]. During La Niña conditions the Hadley Cell Circulation diminishes and the Walker Circulation is enhanced, with well-defined and vigorous rising and sinking branches in the western and eastern extremes of the Pacific Ocean respectively. This results in stronger than normal easterly. Improved understanding of the extent to which ENSO forcing explains variation in the mean global temperature (MGT) might assist in the prediction of climate variability and the preparation of successful extended climate forecasts [12] For this and other reasons the nature of the relationship between ENSO and MGT has been the subject of several studies using a variety of datasets [5,1315]. We use the recently released HadCRUT4 dataset to investigate this further
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