Unveiling the Spark: Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) Analysis of Economic Growth, Crime Rates, and Firecracker-Related Injuries/Death in the Philippines

Abstract

The New Year celebration in the Philippines observes a surge in firecracker-related injuries and deaths, increasing concern beyond cultural significance. The Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) proves the influence of economic growth and crime rates on firecracker-related injuries/deaths. The result of this research draws on the Strain Theory and Routine Activities Theory to reveal the potential influence of economic growth and crime rates on this phenomenon. Through the lens of Strain Theory, economic growth, despite its benefits, drives strain among excluded segments, driving risk-taking behavior, financial pressure, and limited access to safer alternatives, resulting in the use of dangerous fireworks. Routine Activities Theory maintains how high crime rates increase the availability of illegal fireworks and facilitate criminal misuse while also creating environments where riskier behaviors proliferate due to lax enforcement and limited safe options. The research concludes by focusing on the need for policy and interventions addressing economic disparities and crime prevention measures to promote safe and inclusive celebrations. Further research is recommended to probe deeper into regional variations, employ mixed methods approaches, and enhance data collection for targeted interventions and effective policy frameworks.