Unveiling the link between rainfall, temperature, and childhood undernutrition in Bangladesh using spatial analysis

Abstract

Child undernutrition is still a major public health concern in Bangladesh in spite of significant decline in the last few years. Climate change may impact the prevalence of undernutrition and its geographical variability through food security and recurring outbreaks of disease, as well as impede efforts to reduce the undernutrition burden. This study aims to evaluate rainfall and temperature associated with childhood malnutrition in Bangladesh. A spatial mixed effect logistic regression model was used to estimate the association between undernutrition (measured by the composite index of anthropometric failure) and residential area-level rainfall and temperatures, controlling for covariates and spatial effects of residential locations using national data from the 2017 to 2018 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey. Our findings indicate that an increase in rainfall was associated with increased odds of undernutrition [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07–1.24], whereas an increase in temperature was associated with decreased odds of undernutrition (AOR 0.86, 95% CI 0.80–0.93). We also found statistically significant structured and unstructured spatial variations in undernutrition, indicating locational effects. Investing in infrastructure and education could be potential strategies for mitigating the negative effects of climate change. High-risk regions in terms of climatic change and malnutrition could be given priority for intervention implementation.