Unveiling the complexity of social vulnerability: An analysis of the Social Vulnerability Index in Sweden (SVIS)

Abstract

In recent decades, social vulnerability assessments have become a valuable tool for gaining a deeper understanding of the effects of natural hazards on societies. These assessments aim to quantify and map human characteristics that contribute to potential loss, enabling the development of capacities and capabilities to respond to the emerging threats. Assessment methods range from qualitative approaches to semi-quantitative, often spatially explicit, place-based approaches, many of them with empirical background in respective case studies around the world. Despite these efforts, it is still important to carefully examine the potential benefits and limitations of these assessments, particularly those that focus on mapping and place-based approaches, in order to fully understand their value. The purpose of this study (Karagiorgos et al., 2023) was to systematically evaluate the Social Vulnerability Index in Sweden (SVIS) developed by Haas et al. (2022) using a sensitivity analysis approach. This evaluation focuses on the sensitivity around the impact of changing aggregation scale levels, the influence of different options in constructing the index, the weight/contribution of each factor to social vulnerability and the indicators set. The aim was to determine the influence of input factor variation on model response. Concerning the influence of scale variations on assessment outcomes, the SVIS algorithm demonstrated robustness when employed across various scales. In contrast, the factor retention method utilized yielded considerable differences in the results. Likewise, the weights' effect exerted a noteworthy influence on the index formation. The consideration of different subsets of variables revealed a high impact in certain scenarios. The sensitivity analysis conducted in the index construction outlined in this study, recommends that the development of indexes proceed cautiously, accompanied by expert guidance. This approach ensures that the portrayal of social vulnerability remains both reasonable and consistent. Furthermore, the existence of other dimensions of vulnerability, such as physical, economic, and institutional, suggests that the SVIS be integrated with these dimensions. This integration can offer a comprehensive perspective on vulnerability, helping to identify and comprehend the primary pillars for use in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). It also contributes to a deeper understanding of the connections between social vulnerability models and the outcomes of disasters. Haas, J.; Karagiorgos, K.; Pettersson, A.; de Goër de Herve, M.; Gustavsson, J.; Koivisto, J.; Turesson, K. & L. Nyberg (2022): Social sårbarhet för klimatrelaterade hot. Delstudie 2: Generella och hotspecifika index för social sårbarhet i Sverige. Myndigheten för samhällsskydd och beredskap, (MSB) rapport nr 1978, Karlstad. Karagiorgos, K.; Kavallaris, N.; Björnholm, R.; Koivisto, J. & S. Fuchs (2023): Evaluation of the Social Vulnerability Index (SVIS) in Sweden. Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB), MSB report nr 2185, Karlstad.