Abstract

Understanding why different life history strategies respond differently to changes in environmental variability is necessary to be able to predict eco-evolutionary population responses to change. Marine megafauna display unusual combinations of life history traits. For example, rays, sharks and turtles are all long-lived, characteristic of slow life histories. However, turtles also have very high reproduction rates and juvenile mortality, characteristic of fast life histories. Sharks and rays, in contrast, produce a few live-born young, which have low mortality rates, characteristic of slow life histories. This raises the question if marine megafaunal responses to environmental variability follow conventional life history patterns, including the pattern that fast life histories are more sensitive to environmental autocorrelation than slow life histories. To answer this question, we used a functional trait approach to quantify for different species of mobulid rays, cheloniid sea turtles and carcharhinid sharks – all inhabitants or visitors of (human-dominated) coastalscapes – how their life history, average size and log stochastic population growth rate, log(λs), respond to changes in environmental autocorrelation and in the frequency of favorable environmental conditions. The faster life histories were more sensitive to temporal frequency of favourable environmental conditions, but both faster and slower life histories were equally sensitive, although of opposite sign, to environmental autocorrelation. These patterns are atypical, likely following from the unusual life history traits that the megafauna display, as responses were linked to variation in mortality, growth and reproduction rates. Our findings signify the importance of understanding how life history traits and population responses to environmental change are linked. Such understanding is a basis for accurate predictions of marine megafauna population responses to environmental perturbations like (over)fishing, and to shifts in the autocorrelation of environmental variables, ultimately contributing toward bending the curve on marine biodiversity loss.

Highlights

  • Being able to accurately predict how populations of organisms respond to environmental change is one of the key challenges for biologists today (Clements and Ozgul, 2016; SalgueroGómez et al, 2016)

  • We found that responses in how the log stochastic population growth rate, log(λs), varied across the environmental autocorrelation and good environment frequency gradients were grossly captured by variation in three life history traits: juvenile mortality rate, maximum reproduction rate and von Bertalanffy growth rate

  • We found that our results are robust against perturbation of length at puberty, because increasing or decreasing length at puberty of sea turtles by 10% did not qualitatively affect how different life history traits are linked to population responses to shifts in environmental stochasticity (Supplementary Appendix)

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Summary

Introduction

Being able to accurately predict how populations of organisms respond to environmental change is one of the key challenges for biologists today (Clements and Ozgul, 2016; SalgueroGómez et al, 2016). How populations respond to changes in their environment is mediated by the survival, growth and reproduction rates of individuals (Franco and Silvertown, 1996, 2004; Tuljapurkar and Haridas, 2006). Different combinations of these demographic rates comprise different life history strategies (Gaillard et al, 2016; Salguero-Gómez et al, 2016; Paniw et al, 2018). Unraveling how life history strategies and demographic rates are linked can provide in depth understanding of how populations respond to environmental change (Salguero-Gómez et al, 2016; Paniw et al, 2018; Smallegange and Berg, 2019)

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