Untold Tales of Goats in Deadly Indian Monsoons: Adapt or Rain-Retreat under Global Warming?

Abstract

This paper examines the unique characteristics of the monsoon climate system and whether Indian farmers can adapt to an even deadlier monsoon climate caused by global climatic shifts. This paper shows that the monsoon climate system can be best captured by the Monsoon Variability Index (MVI) constructed by the present author which is defined as the coefficient of variation in the ratio of monsoon rainfall over non-monsoon rainfall for the 40-year period from 1971 to 2010. Monthly precipitation data are based on the observations at 304 weather stations located across India. This paper shows that the traditional measures of the monsoon climate such as monsoon precipitation do not explain the Indian farmers’ behaviors in response to the climate system. Second, this paper shows that the number of goats owned by farm households increases as the MVI increases, that is, as the monsoon climate intensifies. This paper finds that 50% increase in the MVI leads to 23% increase in the number of goats owned by farms. This means that farmers adapt to even the deadliest climate system, i.e., the monsoon system which often leaves millions of people homeless or dead in a single year. Third, this paper finds that the number of sheep owned declines as monsoon rainfall intensifies but increases if the non-monsoon season temperature warms up. The sheep number is not sensitive to changes in the MVI. This paper shows for the first time the ways farmers adapt to the deadly monsoon climate system. Past studies of climate change and agriculture in India are re-evaluated based on the results and policy implications are described.