Until the Fog of Uncertainty Lifts – Disruptive Founding Visions and New Venture Funding Success

Abstract

Looking at today's startup landscape, it is easy to get the impression that today's founders are in a continuous race with their peers to develop the most disruptive vision. But does a disruptive vision actually help new ventures to succeed in the long run? We investigate if and how long disruptive founding visions are related to new venture funding success in the seed and post-seed funding stages. Drawing on a longitudinal, multi-source dataset of 318 US-based high-tech ventures, we use a new, time-conscious analysis method, the Aalen additive hazards model, to find that disruptive founding visions have a constant and positive effect on the time to seed funding. However, approximately two years after seed funding – when the initial fog of uncertainty lifts – the positive effect of a disruptive founding vision disappears in the post-seed funding stage. Our findings contribute to the theoretical and methodological advancement of the entrepreneurship discipline at the intersection of visionary leadership, disruptive innovation theory, and time-conscious entrepreneurship research. Further, we offer pragmatic managerial advice for founders who develop their founding vision.