Untangling the impact of socio-demographic factors on energy consumption: Why is energy access difficult to achieve in off-grid island communities?

Abstract

The provision of electricity to rural off-grid island communities is considered a practical initial approach to achieving Just Energy Transition. Often, these communities are powered by diesel generators running on conventional fossil fuels that typically translate to higher electricity tariffs. The use of renewable energy technologies is deemed as the practical approach to electrify these islands. However, there is a need to define how these off-grid communities consume electricity to provide a more robust approach to load demand profiling. This study proposes an alternative path analysis approach to determine causality relationships between socio-demographic attributes of households and their ownership of electrical appliances, as an approach to ascertain electricity consumption. The approach is applied in three island communities in Palawan, Philippines where electricity is provided by diesel generators. A comprehensive survey considering age, gender, income, education, household size, and employment status was done in the three island communities. Path analysis using the R lavaan package was completed to determine causality and the results were compared with traditional correlation analysis. Results of both path analysis and correlation analysis show that income and education have the strongest significance in determining household ability to own appliances, and thus electricity consumption while age is not statistically significant at all. All other factors show weak to moderate significance. The results of the research provide a critical baseline approach to load demand profiling that can help stakeholders to conduct more efficient energy planning and develop more pragmatic strategies towards 100% household electrification and Just Energy Transition.