Untangling political ideology and party identification in the United States

Abstract

By analyzing an election night survey of voters in the 1992 U.S. Presidential election, this article explicates the meaning, relationships, and effects on vote of ideological self-designation (liberal, centrist, conservative) and party identification (Democrat, Independent, Republican). In addition to concern about a candidate's character, different interests about governmental interventions designed to augment economic equity, social equality, and the public's health interpret the meaning of these categories. Using seven social attributes as instruments, a two-stage least-squares analysis and a sensitivity analysis suggest that ideology has a stable net direct effect on party identification. The effect of party identification on ideology is negligible. Concern about a candidate's character and public health interests strongly interpret the effect of ideology on party identification; the effects of interests concerning equity and rights are not as strong. Because the social attributes explain very little variance in vote, whereas more malleable variables – ideology and party identification – have very strong effects, electoral choices now tend to be more changeable than in the past.