Unsupervised learning algorithm for time series using bivariate AR(1) model

Abstract

Currently, there is an increased interest in time series clustering research, particularly for finding useful similar time series in various applied areas such as speech recognition, environmental research, finance and medical imaging. Clustering and classification of time series has the potential to analyze large volumes of data. Most of the traditional time series clustering and classification algorithms deal only with univariate time series data. In this paper, we develop an unsupervised learning algorithm for bivariate time series. The initial clusters are found using K-means algorithm and the model parameters are estimated using the EM algorithm. The learning algorithm is developed by utilizing component maximum likelihood and Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC). The performance of the developed algorithm is evaluated using real time data collected from a pollution centre. A comparative study of the proposed algorithm is made with the existing data mining algorithm that uses univariate autoregressive process of order 1 (AR(1)) model. It is observed that the proposed algorithm out performs the existing algorithms.