Unsupervised analysis of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in brazilian states: Vaccination Scenario

Abstract

Brazil is one of the countries with the worst response against the pandemic scenario of coronavírus. At the beginning we were on average with 4000 deaths in a 24 hours period. In the course of this situation, large amounts of health and medicine datasets were being generated in real time, requiring effective ways to extract information and discover patterns that can help in the fight against this disease. And even more important is to monitor the progress of prophylactic measures and whether they are being effective in reducing the spread of the virus. Thus, the aim of this study is to analyze how the coronavirus has different ways to evolve in each Brazilian state with the influences of the vaccination process. To achieve this goal, the time series Clustering Technique based on a K-Means variation was applied, with the similarity metric Dynamic Time Warping (DTW). We produced this study using the data reported by the Ministry of Health in Brazil, referring to deaths per 100k inhabitants and all vaccination data available. Our results indicate an unevenly occurring vaccination and the need to identify other associated patterns with human development indices and other socio-economic indicators, being this the first analysis developed in the country, under the goals above.