Abstract
Unrecognized states are characterized by stagnant or crumbling economies and political instability, often serve as havens for illicit trade, and challenge the territorial sovereignty of recognized states. Their persistence is both intellectually puzzling and normatively problematic, but unrecognized statehood can be a remarkably stable outcome, persisting for decades. Our four-player model reveals that unrecognized statehood emerges as an equilibrium outcome when a patron state is willing and able to persistently invest resources to sustain it. We assess options available to actors in the international community who seek to impose their preferred outcomes in these disputes and find that, although sanctions are the most frequently employed, they can often lead to renewed conflict instead of the intended resolution.
Highlights
South Ossetia is an archetypical unrecognized state – characteristic of those regions of the world in which non-state actors control territory and govern populations
From 1990 to 1992, Ossetian rebels fought a successful secessionist civil war against the Georgian government that ended with a ceasefire and left the rebels in de facto control of much of the region of South Ossetia, which sits along Georgia’s northern border with Russia
Russia’s military and economic support of secessionist rebels in Eastern Ukraine, suggest that the phenomenon of unrecognized statehood will not fade from relevance soon
Summary
South Ossetia is an archetypical unrecognized state – characteristic of those regions of the world in which non-state actors control territory and govern populations. From 1990 to 1992, Ossetian rebels fought a successful secessionist civil war against the Georgian government that ended with a ceasefire and left the rebels in de facto control of much of the region of South Ossetia, which sits along Georgia’s northern border with Russia. In the 22 years since the ceasefire was signed, South Ossetia has functioned as an unrecognized state, governing its own affairs but unrecognized by foreign nations.[1] The Georgian government maintains its claim to the territory of South Ossetia, while the South Ossetians continue to seek international recognition of their independence. In 2004, the Georgian government began intermittent efforts to close trade with the separatist region, and in 2008, following escalating provocations from the Ossetian side, Georgia attempted to reclaim the territory by military force. Russian troops acting in support of the Ossetians quickly crushed the would-be reconquest, and the status quo was restored
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