Abstract
Objective: The results of numerous empirical studies have showed the occurrence of so-called unrealistic optimism. Thus, we aimed to investigate whether in the situation of an imminent coronavirus pandemic, people would still perceive themselves as being less exposed to the disease than others. Methods: Survey studies were conducted to examine the level of unrealistic optimism. Participants (n = 171, 67.3% of women) in a subjective way judged the risk of their coronavirus infection and the likelihood that this would happen to an average student of the same sex from their class. The survey was conducted in three waves: prior to the announcement of the first case of coronavirus (2–3 March), immediately after that announcement (5–6 March), and a few days later (9–10 March). Results: We showed that women estimated the chances of being infected as significantly higher (M = 4.52, SD = 2.079; t = 2.387; p = 0.018; Cohen’s d = 0.393) than men (M = 3.71, SD = 2.042). The phenomenon of unrealistic optimism was observed especially in men (as compared to other male participants) as it appeared in all three measures (M (you) = 3.95 vs. M (other male student) = 4.63; M = 3.71 vs. M = 4.68, and M = 4.46 vs. M = 5.38 in phase one, two, and three, respectively; p ≤ 0.006 for all comparison), but also in women in the last two measures (M (you) = 4.55 vs. M (other female student) = 4.95, and M = 4.99 vs. M = 5.38 in phase 2 and 3, respectively; p ≤ 0.012 for both comparisons). Conclusions: The study revealed a fairly general occurrence of unrealistic optimism, which was mainly observed in men as it appeared in all three measures, but also in women in the last two measures. This result is important for health experts who are responsible for making people comply with regulations concerning social distancing, putting masks on to stop infection, and staying at home. It is possible that unrealistically optimistic people will behave much less in line with the aforementioned recommendations, causing coronavirus to spread widely.
Highlights
People are frequently engaged in making predictions about various aspects of their own future, including health aspects
The results clearly indicated the occurrence of unrealistic optimism—the participating students believed that these bad things were less likely to happen to them than to the average student
The morning (4 March) a special press conference was called at which the Minister of Health announced that the first case of coronavirus in Poland was discovered in a man who had come from Germany a few days earlier
Summary
People are frequently engaged in making predictions about various aspects of their own future, including health aspects. This study is most likely the only one in history where unrealistic optimism was examined at a time when the participants were experiencing a state of general, unexpected, and new (for them) threat that might affect their health and even life expectancy. We wanted to find out whether in the situation of an imminent coronavirus pandemic, participants would perceive themselves as being exposed to the disease to the same degree as the average person from their reference group or whether their beliefs would be biased In the latter case, the question arises in turn as to whether this bias would be one of unrealistic optimism or rather unrealistic pessimism. It could be assumed that such beliefs would be influenced by media coverage of the spread of the infection in the country where the study was conducted and information about the situation in other countries
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