Abstract
ABSTRACTCoupled social and ecological systems need to be understood from a dynamic perspective in order to operationalise complexity concepts, such as tipping points, for sustainable ecosystem management. In this study, we strive to achieve this type of conceptual understanding through the analysis of the relationships (e.g. strength, nonlinearity) between the trends of ecosystem services (ES) and human wellbeing (HWB) between 1960 and 2010 in the south-west Bangladesh delta using generalized additive and logistic regression models. We use sequential principal components analysis to investigate the connectedness within the social–ecological system as a measure of resilience. We also use published literature to help develop a system dynamic framework in order to investigate how ES and HWB are interlinked. Overall, our results support previous work, which depicts that material wellbeing (basic materials for a good life) having a strong relationship with provisioning services, which in turn, show a weak relationship with the quality of life (security and health). Moreover, our analysis confirms the ‘Environmentalist’s Paradox’ that HWB has increased despite the deterioration in ES. However, our results suggest that provisioning services are not the only important reason for the increases in observed HWB, as these have also been substantially influenced by technology and capital investment (aid and subsidy). In addition, worsening trends in regulation services and in ‘slow’ variables such as climate suggest that the resilience of the overall social-ecological system is decreasing. Such changes may have severe consequences if they continue, for example, if temperatures exceed the upper physiological limits of key provisioning services (e.g. rice, fish) in the Bangladesh delta. These indicators all suggest that although in terms of HWB the deltaic social–ecological system may be successfully adapting to environmental change, it may also be close to transgressing critical ecological boundaries in the near future.
Highlights
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) developed a conceptual framework to explore the complex relationships between ecosystem services (ES) and human wellbeing (HWB)
The list of selected HWB indicators (Supplementary Table 2) is based on data availability, measurability and the Sustainability Development Goals (SDG 2030) and Millennium Development Goals (MDG 2015) for Bangladesh, for example, the percentage of ‘births attended by skilled health staff’ and ‘primary education’ attainment
This study represents the first regional scale analysis of a complex social–ecological system in a coastal area of Bangladesh using the concept of ES and HWB
Summary
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) developed a conceptual framework to explore the complex relationships between ecosystem services (ES) and human wellbeing (HWB). Due to the importance of this relationship for policy decisions and human actions, several studies have adopted this framework empirically at national and subnational scales (Butler & Oluoch-Kosura 2006; CRA 2006; Hossain et al 2013; Santos-Martın et al 2013). Of particular note is the study by Santos-Martın et al (2013) who analysed the relationship between ES and HWB in Spain using comprehensive lists of indicators and a structural equation model within the DriverPressure-State-Impact-Response framework. An understanding of the full relationship between ES and HWB demands a dynamical perspective based on time series data (Carpenter et al 2009) that can give insight into the complex and uncertain nature of a social–
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callMore From: International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
