Unravelling projected energy savings in 2020 of EU Member States using decomposition analyses

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to provide deeper insights into the energy savings efforts of EU Member States by exploring the impact of new policies, the recent economic recession and other effects, using decomposition analyses. The results of the study show that the difference between the two official EU baseline projections, PRIMES-2007 (pre-recession, pre-Climate and Energy Package) and PRIMES-2013 (post-recession, including the new policies of the Package), can be explained by the combined impact of the new policies, the economic recession and other effects such as differences in energy prices. However, the impact of the other effects remains largely unexplained in the official PRIMES-2013 report and is clouding the right interpretation of the policy effect. By providing these insights, this study could help policy-makers in better understanding scenario outcomes and the impact of their policies.If EU Member States would be able to achieve their 2020 energy savings targets, then an important step has been taken to bridge the energy savings gap. Since the economic recession plays a major role in bridging this gap and economic recovery is aimed for, further intensification of energy efficiency policies is crucial to contribute to the GHG reduction target for 2030 and beyond.