Unraveling the Multiple Drivers of Greening-Browning and Leaf Area Variability in a Socioeconomically Sensitive Drought-Prone Region

Abstract

The complex attribution of climatic, hydrologic, and anthropogenic drivers to vegetation and agricultural production and their consequential societal impacts are not well understood, especially in socioeconomically sensitive states like Maharashtra, India. Here, we analyzed trends and variability in the MODIS leaf area index (LAI) time series, along with spatiotemporal patterns in precipitation, groundwater storage, agriculture statistics, and irrigation infrastructure, to identify their influences on the vegetation response and discuss their implications for farmers. The state showed greening in all biomes except forests, with a net gain of 17.478 × 103 km2 of leaf area during 2003–2019, where more than 70% of the trend in LAI is represented in croplands. Maximum greening was observed in irrigated croplands, attributable to increased crop productivity, whereas inadequate irrigation facilities with erratic rainfall patterns and droughts were primarily responsible for cropland browning. We discerned the dynamics and variability of vegetation response by incorporating a spectrum of synergistic feedbacks from multiple confounding drivers and found that uneven distribution of water availability across the administrative divisions governed the quantitative distinction in leaf area change. Despite the observed greening trends, the state witnessed a high number of farmer suicides related to droughts and agriculture failures hampering their socioeconomic security; therefore, improved irrigation infrastructure and comprehensive policy interventions are crucial for abatement of farmer distress.