Unraveling The Dynamics Of Foreign Direct Investment And Economic Activity In Brazil: A Copula-Based Analysis

Abstract

This study analyzes the relationship between FDI and the IBC-Br from 2003 to 2022. Our objective is to examine the effect of FDI on Brazil´s economic activities. Thus, we look also for a connection between the Brazilian Central Bank’s leadership in each period and the FDI effect on IBC-Br. To explore this, we employ an approach based on the Granger Causality Test and copula models that encompass Gaussian, t-Student, Gumbel, Frank, and Clayton functions. Our findings indicate that in the short term, FDI exerts some influence on IBC-Br, while the reverse relationship is not observed. Furthermore, using the Clayton Copula function, we identify the dependency of causal relationships between the variables, particularly in extreme economic scenarios. These discoveries contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the dynamics between FDI and economic activity in the different periods of the Brazilian Central Bank’s leadership.