Unraveling atmospheric moisture transport linkages to extreme precipitation events and associated synoptic features over India

Abstract

This study explores the physical mechanisms underlying extreme precipitation events linked to atmospheric moisture transport (IVT-P). It identifies regions where IVT influences extreme precipitation and investigates changes in synoptic-scale weather patterns over the Indian subcontinent. The study finds a strong association between daily IVT and precipitation over the core monsoon region and complex terrains of the Western Ghats and Himalayas. Event Coincidence Analysis reveals that extreme IVT can be used to forecast extreme precipitation in these regions. The dynamic component of moisture transport strongly influences daily and extreme precipitation over complex terrains, while the thermodynamic component influences precipitation over regions with abundant water vapor and weak horizontal winds. The study also identifies synoptic features and moisture transport ahead of IVT-P events and finds intense low-pressure anomalies, transition from ridge to trough patterns, and intense 700 hPa relative humidity in the specified regions. Overall, the study provides insights into the physical mechanisms underlying IVT linked extreme precipitation events.