Unpredictability as doctrine: Reconceptualising foreign policy strategy in the Trump era

Abstract

This article tackles the question of whether US President Donald Trump’s foreign policy is informed by doctrine and, if so, what that doctrine is. In doing so, it positions itself with those who argue for the presence of a doctrine and specifically those who argue for a doctrine of unpredictability. The article problematises current understandings of doctrine, and the notion of unpredictability itself. The tendency to rely on the rational decision-making model is identified as a hindrance to analysis that acknowledges the possibility of a doctrine premised on a deliberate strategy of obfuscation and of wrongfooting both friend and foe. A four-pronged model of unpredictability is posited, consisting of inconstancy, inconsistency, unconstrainedness, and unreliability. This model encourages research unimpeded by prior ideas that treat Western foreign policy as rational and therefore expands the range of possible foreign policy doctrines that analysts contemplate.