Unprecedented economic attack on Sub-Sahara African economies: coronavirus: How severe is the perceived slump?

Abstract

This paper postulates the impact of coronavirus on Sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies and resilience to the pandemic. Relief measures instituted by World Bank Group (WBG) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) to help in the prevention, detection and treatment of coronavirus amidst SSA non-monetary measures and business support interventions are highlighted. The underlying economic challenges likely to impede WBG and IMF relief measures in SSA such as health infrastructure and resource deficiency, unsustainable high debt levels and drought effects due to climate change are analysed. Ranking the inadequate doctor-to-population ratio from 2015 to 2017, SSA ratio stood at less than 1 per 1000 population recommended World Health Organisation standard. On the credit front, other creditors such as China have contributed to prevailing economic challenges as China Official Development Assistance (ODA) to SSA debt ratio is depicted at 55% in 2016 from a low ratio of 17% in 2009. The economic challenges are further buttressed by estimated monthly tourism sector loss of US$8.8 billion per month for SSA countries during the pandemic. SSA self-employed informal sector that accounts for 76% (International Labour Organisation 2018) is equally affected amid lockdowns, business losses, closures and job losses. Economic growth is forecasted to drop to 1.8%, from a previous estimate of 3.2% according to United Nations Economic Commission (2020) due to a trade fall with developed and emerging markets. Recovery is aligned to good resilience in inherent cyber risk, oil intensity and urbanisation rate and policies to enhance production and the agriculture sector.