Unlocking effective ice-jam risk management: Insights from agent-based modeling and comparative analysis of social theories in Fort McMurray, Canada

Abstract

Ice jams pose a major flood hazard in communities along northern rivers, resulting in high backwater levels and overbank flooding during ice-cover breakup. Mitigation measures, including large-scale projects by government agencies and individual actions by asset owners, can help reduce flood risk and protect human life and assets. This study examines ice-jam flood risk and explores the effectiveness of adaptive strategies in mitigating such risks in Fort McMurry, Canada. It evaluates the effectiveness of top-down (government-led artificial breakup) and bottom-up (resident-led flood-proofing) strategies, comparing the Rational Choice Theory (RCT) and the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) models. The objective is to explore the potential enhancements to the ice-jam flood risk model through the integration of the PMT as a decision-making framework under uncertainty. This study seeks to assess whether and to what extent such integration can improve the modeling of ice-jam flood risk. The findings highlight the benefits of incorporating socio-economic factors in the PMT model. Economic factors, such as income tax and the cost of flood-proofing, shape overall flood risk, especially when artificial breakup measures are not implemented. The study emphasizes the importance of considering heterogeneity in decision-making processes and diverse characteristics of individuals when designing flood risk management strategies. Response efficacy and self-efficacy coefficients are significant factors influencing flood risk and the adoption of flood-proofing measures. Enhancing individuals' belief in their actions' effectiveness and their confidence in self-protection contributes to more effective flood risk management. These findings inform the development of more effective flood risk management strategies.