Abstract
The purpose of the research is the empirical analysis andelaboration of the system dynamics approach to define and estimate the key drivers of the future macroeconomic stabilization and economic potential of the Ukrainian economy. The study used thegeneralization, systematization and grouping of data, methods of system analysis and synthesis as well as the system dynamics methods and models.Research results. The analysis of the development of the Ukrainian economy in comparison to the Polish economic situation has been completed. We confirmed the hypothesis that many of the initial economic problems in Ukraine – such as a low aggregate demand and export competitiveness – have been the cause of the exchange rate regime. Elaborated system dynamics models not only allow to analyze the feedback structure of a national economy but can also be used to verify the effectiveness of the different implications for the economic policymaking in Ukraine in the coming years.The results of this paper are mostly exploratory and need further, deeper research before conclusions can be used for policymakers in order to elaborate the economic strategy which leads to improvement of the economic potential of Ukraine in the short and long run.Conclusions. Based on the empirical analysis conducted on the realization of the two types of the system dynamic models with the focus on explaining the interrelationships between domestic consumption, aggregate demand, inflation, export competitiveness, and exchange rate fluctuations, it was shown that although the currency peg has had a positive impacts on Ukraine’s energy imports, many of the other economic problems in Ukraine, such as a low aggregate demand and export competitiveness, have had place. It was also confirmed that the passage to flexible exchange rate regime is one of the important drivers of the economic potential and the competitiveness reinforcing as well as achievement of macroeconomic stabilization, especially in the long run.Article received 27.04.2018
Highlights
Introduction and research problemAfter decades of being a relatively unknown country among European and American policymakers, Ukraine has become one of the most bespoken countries within Europe and the world in recent years
Based on the empirical analysis conducted on the realization of the two types of the system dynamic models with the focus on explaining the interrelationships between domestic consumption, aggregate demand, inflation, export competitiveness, and exchange rate fluctuations, it was shown that the currency peg has had a positive impacts on Ukraine’s energy imports, many of the other economic problems in Ukraine, such as a low aggregate demand and export competitiveness, have had place
It was confirmed that the passage to flexible exchange rate regime is one of the important drivers of the economic potential and the competitiveness reinforcing as well as achievement of macroeconomic stabilization, especially in the long run
Summary
Introduction and research problemAfter decades of being a relatively unknown country among European and American policymakers, Ukraine has become one of the most bespoken countries within Europe and the world in recent years. What is still lacking is fundamental knowledge about the country itself, among others about its economy, especially about its economic potential and perspectives of the macroeconomic stabilization. This is why analysis of the main challenges and opportunities that Ukraine has faced in recent years and will face in the years to come as well as the investigation of the key factors of the future macroeconomic stabilization and economic potential still very important for further deeper research. The problem of the economic potential and perspectives of the economic growth for the emerging countries as well as a discussion about different kinds of the exchange rate regime as the macroeconomic driver for different countries in different periods of their economic development has been investigated by many foreign and Ukrainian researchers, including O.
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