Unleashing the Potential of Boosting Techniques to Optimize Station-Pairs Passenger Flow Forecasting

Abstract

Station-pair passenger flow forecast modeling is crucial for public transportation to address emerging needs. The accurate prediction and estimation will provide backbone support for various features of transport, viz. (a) Demand forecasting for resource allocation during peak travel periods; (b) Service planning to determine transportation frequency on specific routes; (c) Resource allocation for vehicles and capacity adjustments, including planning for new fleet size; (d) Infrastructure planning to identify areas requiring additional development; (e) Enhancing passenger experience with ample seating and amenities; and (f) Emergency planning for crowd control and passenger safety. Recent advancements in transit information station-pair estimation methods can be implemented with Data Science. Over the years, there has been significant progress in developing innovative modeling approaches to estimate travel behaviour, taking into account various factors such as timeslots, holidays, and other relevant features. In this study, we have synthesized ticket data from Thane Municipal Transport (TMT), collected from e-ticket machines, spanning from January 1 to June 23, 2023, covering all routes and comprising more than 2.80 crore tickets. This paper presents a comprehensive station-pair short-term passenger flow forecast by utilizing three boosting models: extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Light Gradient Boosting model (LightGBM), and Categorical Boosting model (CatBoost). Their implementation is well-suited based on statistical parameters. The study concludes by comparing the results of the models, considering computation time and statistical parameters, to validate their superiority. By looking into day to day requirements, the LightGBM model is most appropriate for implementation with an accurate result. The research findings contribute to providing valuable data support and a robust scientific foundation for managing passenger flow through route planning and dispatching in urban transit systems.