Unleashing the indirect influence of oil prices on food prices via exchange rate: New evidence from Pakistan

Abstract

Oil prices not only affect the agricultural commodity directly but also indirectly through different channels. However, among these channels, the most important is the channel of exchange rate. The reason for putting emphasis on the mediating role of exchange rate between the oil prices and food prices nexus is that the oil‐importing counties like Pakistan pay their import bills in terms of foreign currency in the international market which as a result escalates the demand for foreign currency in oil‐importing countries. This study has analyzed the indirect influence of oil prices on food prices via exchange rate. We developed a Composite Index (CI) of the agricultural commodity prices including wheat, cotton, rice, gram, sugar cane, and maize. This index is generated by using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Further, to construct our econometric model, we used mediation approach by applying Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) model. The results indicate a positive relationship between exchange rate and prices of oil. We also found the same relationship between exchange rate and the food prices. In addition to this, we witnessed positive effects of prices of oil on the food prices in the presence of exchange rate. Our study confirms that exchange rate partially mediates between the nexus of oil prices and food prices. Our analysis explains the impact of oil price on agricultural commodity prices through the channel of exchange rate by using time series data of Pakistan.