Abstract
We evaluate the criminogenic effects of Universal Credit (UC), a monumental welfare reform designed to radically change the social security payment system in the United Kingdom. We exploit the staggered UC rollout across constituencies using monthly data from 2010 to 2019 for England and Wales. We find UC has caused around 35,000 burglaries and 25,000 vehicle thefts, with long-lasting effects until the end of the sample period. The analysis points toward the worsening of recipients’ financial conditions as the key mechanism. The criminogenic effects are likely to keep growing given 6.5 million individuals will soon transition into the system.
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