Abstract
Understanding the mechanisms and processes underlying the dynamics of collective violence is of considerable current interest. Recent studies indicated the presence of robust patterns characterizing the size and timing of violent events in human conflicts. Since the size and timing of violent events arises as the result of a dynamical process, we explore the possibility of unifying these observations. By analyzing available catalogs on violent events in Iraq (2003–2005), Afghanistan (2008–2010) and Northern Ireland (1969–2001), we show that the inter-event time distributions (calculated for a range of minimum sizes) obeys approximately a simple scaling law which holds for more than three orders of magnitude. This robust pattern suggests a hierarchical organization in size and time providing a unified picture of the dynamics of violent conflicts.
Highlights
Understanding the mechanisms and processes underlying the dynamics of collective violence is of considerable current interest
Since the size and timing of violent events arises as the result of a dynamical process, we explore the possibility of unifying these observations
By analyzing available catalogs on violent events in Iraq (2003–2005), Afghanistan (2008–2010) and Northern Ireland (1969–2001), we show that the inter-event time distributions obeys approximately a simple scaling law which holds for more than three orders of magnitude
Summary
Understanding the mechanisms and processes underlying the dynamics of collective violence is of considerable current interest. By analyzing available catalogs on violent events in Iraq (2003–2005), Afghanistan (2008–2010) and Northern Ireland (1969–2001), we show that the inter-event time distributions (calculated for a range of minimum sizes) obeys approximately a simple scaling law which holds for more than three orders of magnitude This robust pattern suggests a hierarchical organization in size and time providing a unified picture of the dynamics of violent conflicts. By analyzing available catalogs of violent events in distinct parts of the world, we show that the inter-event time distributions calculated for a range of values of minimum sizes can be approximately described by a single master curve which holds for more than three orders of magnitude This result signalizes the existence of a scaling law expressing a hierarchical organization of times and sizes in violent conflicts
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