Unity or Distinction over Political Borders? The Impact of Mainstream Parties in Local Seat Majorities on Refugee reception

Kristoffer Jutvik

doi:10.1111/1467-9477.12175

Abstract

This study exploits close elections in Sweden to assess the causal relationship between seat majorities for mainstream political parties and refugee reception policy. The study focuses on the two dominant mainstream political blocs, in a centre‐right and a centre‐left coalition, during three waves of elections from 2002 to 2010. In doing so, the study makes a few contributions to current research: Firstly, besides addressing a current knowledge gap in the focus on mainstream parties and refugee reception policy, this study investigates the impact of seat majorities which potentially have a more influential position compared to individual parties. Secondly, the study relies on an empirical strategy which allows comparison of comparable cases. Lastly, the study focuses on mainstream parties at the local level of government within one institutional context and thus addresses the obstacle of case comparability within cross‐country studies. In conclusion, this study finds that the relationship between the mainstream political blocs and refugee reception policy is of an associative nature. In order to find significant estimates of seat majorities, the win margin for each bloc needs to be substantial. These results indicate that there is a unified political attitude over the mainstream blocs towards refugee reception and that other factors, and not political seat majorities, have contributed to the uneven distribution of refugees among municipalities in Sweden.

Highlights

Over the last decades, the varying level of refugee reception rates across the European Union (EU) has emerged from a peripheral position to the centre of the political and academic debate
This study concludes that the relationship between seat majorities for the mainstream political blocs and refugee reception is of an associative rather than causal nature
The association between the political blocs and refugee reception follows the theoretically expected patterns: municipalities with centre-left seat majorities have a higher rate of refugee reception

Summary

Introduction

The varying level of refugee reception rates across the European Union (EU) has emerged from a peripheral position to the centre of the political and academic debate. Focusing on the local level of government in Sweden, this study investigates if seat majorities, consisting of mainstream parties in a centre-right and centre-left bloc, have an effect on municipal refugee reception policy during three waves of elections. Folke (2014) has suggested that party representation, measured in the share of seats in local assemblies, has a significant effect on refugee reception policy in Swedish municipalities. The number of minority governments increased in the election 2010, the SD did not hold the balance of power in the municipalities with either centre-right or centre-left seat majorities This suggests that the SD had limited influence over policy in these municipalities. Valid to assume that centre-right and centre-left seat majorities influence policy even if they fail to form a governing local government Based on this assumption, the approach in this study constitutes a ‘sharp’ RDD.

A: Centre-right seat majorities Without controls

Results

Conclusions and Further Discussion