United States Pedestrian Fatality Trends, 1977 to 2016

Abstract

After decreasing for three decades, U.S. pedestrian fatalities increased by more than 40% between 2009 and 2016, hindering progress toward a future transportation system that produces zero deaths. While many researchers have investigated changes in the last decade, this study takes a long-term perspective and asks: what are the most common characteristics associated with U.S. pedestrian fatalities, and how have these characteristics shifted over the last 40 years? It analyzes all 231,675 pedestrian fatalities recorded between 1977 and 2016 in the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) database. Over 40 years, most pedestrian fatalities occurred in darkness (65%) and involved male pedestrians (70%) and male drivers (67%). They were commonly in roadway lanes (90%), away from intersections (80%), and involved vehicles traveling straight (83%). Most occurred on roadways with speed limits of 35 mph (56 km/h) or higher (70%) and four or more lanes (50%). Trends were compared across eight 5-year periods. Between the earliest and latest periods, there were significant decreases in the proportion of pedestrian fatalities among children younger than 15 (from 18% to 5%) and involving drivers who were drinking (from 15% to 8%). There were significant increases in pedestrian fatalities during darkness (from 63% to 73%), involving large vehicles (e.g., pickup trucks, vans, and SUVs) (from 22% to 44%), on roadways with speed limits 35 mph or higher (from 60% to 76%), and on roadways with four or more lanes (from 41% to 58%). These findings underscore the need for fundamental transportation systems changes to ultimately eliminate pedestrian fatalities.