United Kingdom and Ireland precipitation variability and the North Atlantic sea‐level pressure field

Abstract

AbstractThe relationship between UK and Ireland (UK&I) precipitation variability and the North Atlantic sea‐level pressure (SLP) field is examined. Strong positive correlations between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and precipitation in the northwest of the UK&I, particularly in winter, are confirmed but correlations are insignificant at the 0.05 level in the southeast during all months. This paper identifies new patterns of SLP associated with precipitation variability both for regions and months where precipitation variability is not strongly linked with the NAO and for patterns that appear to be more closely related to UK&I precipitation than the NAO.Two indices of monthly UK&I precipitation variability are calculated using empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of monthly UK&I precipitation anomalies. EOF1 represents precipitation variability for the UK&I as a whole and EOF2 the variability in the north–south precipitation gradient across the UK&I. Correlations between both these monthly EOF derived precipitation indices and SLP show a north–south (sub‐tropical/mid‐latitude) dipole, which is particularly strong in winter. These correlation patterns are then used to construct new SLP indices, which necessarily relate more closely to UK&I precipitation. The first index resembles the East Atlantic pattern from September to April. The second may be thought of as an alternative index of the NAO, such that it is optimized with respect to precipitation variability and is located northeast of those centres of action most commonly used to calculate the NAO index.Stepwise linear regression models, incorporating the two new indices and the original NAOI, suggest that over 25% of UK&I precipitation variability this century (1900–1994) in each month can be explained by a simple index representation of the North Atlantic SLP field. This rises to over 40% of variance explained in nearly all regions of the UK&I. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society