Abstract
Climate change may both exacerbate the vulnerabilities and open up new opportunities for farming in the Northeastern USA. Among the opportunities are double-cropping and new crop options that may come with warmer temperatures and a longer frost-free period. However, prolonged periods of spring rains in recent years have delayed planting and offset the potentially beneficial longer frost-free period. Water management will be a serious challenge for Northeast farmers in the future, with projections for increased frequency of heavy rainfall events, as well as projections for more frequent summer water deficits than this historically humid region has experienced in the past. Adaptations to increase resilience to such changes include expanded irrigation capacity, modernized water monitoring and irrigation scheduling, farm drainage systems that collect excess rain into ponds for use as a water source during dry periods, and improved soil water holding capacity and drainage. Among the greatest vulnerabilities over the next several decades for the economically important perennial fruit crop industry of the region is an extended period of spring frost risk associated with warmer winter and early spring temperatures. Improved real-time frost warning systems, careful site selection for new plantings, and use of misting, wind machine, or other frost protection measures will be important adaptation strategies. Increased weed and pest pressure associated with longer growing seasons and warmer winters is another increasingly important challenge. Pro-active development of non-chemical control strategies, improved regional monitoring, and rapid-response plans for targeted control of invasive weeds and pests will be necessary.
Highlights
The crop production component of the Northeastern US (NE) agricultural economy exceeded US$9 billion in 2012 (Supplemental Table S1), and includes large wholesale grower-shippers selling product nationally and internationally, as well as thousands of small farm operations selling direct retail
Novel assessments of climate change impacts specific to NE crop production are based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5; Taylor et al 2012) output that has been downscaled using the Localized Constructed Analog (LOCA) method (Pierce et al 2014)
There are over 50 models included in the CMIP5 archive; it is unusual for impact studies to include the entire suite of model projections
Summary
The crop production component of the Northeastern US (NE) agricultural economy exceeded US$9 billion in 2012 (Supplemental Table S1), and includes large wholesale grower-shippers selling product nationally and internationally, as well as thousands of small farm operations selling direct retail. Farmers are on the front lines of coping with climate change, but the direct impacts on crops, pests, and costs of adaptation will have cascading effects beyond the farm gate and throughout the NE economy. While climate change will create unprecedented challenges for farmers in the region, new opportunities are possible as well, such as developing new markets for crops that may benefit from a longer frost-free period and warmer temperatures (Horton et al 2014; Wolfe et al 2011). We focus on unique challenges and opportunities for the NE, and adaptation strategies to address climate anomalies of high priority for the region, such as changing rainfall patterns, summer heat stress, and shorter, warmer winters.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
